Arizona @ Buffalo props

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Bills being an enormous 7-point favorite this week. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. To the extent of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.35 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest in football (in a neutral context) at the present time. Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being forecasted in this game) typically lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.8 per game) last year.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Bills being an enormous 7-point favorite this week. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. To the extent of a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.35 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest in football (in a neutral context) at the present time. Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being forecasted in this game) typically lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.8 per game) last year.

The predictive model expects the Cardinals as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier weather in this week's contest. Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) last year.

The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board. With an outstanding 72.8% Adjusted Catch Rate (88th percentile) last year, Curtis Samuel has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among wideouts. The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.6%) versus WRs last year (68.6%). When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's group of CBs has been easily exploitable last year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

The Cardinals are a heavy 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect Trey McBride to garner 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs. Trey McBride has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 20.1% last year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among TEs. Trey McBride grades out as one of the best pass-game tight ends last year, averaging a terrific 4.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 90th percentile. Last year, the porous Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded a colossal 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 8th-largest rate in football.

The Cardinals are a heavy 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script. James Conner has been on the field for 62.3% of his offense's snaps last year, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs. With an excellent 86.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (79th percentile) last year, James Conner has been among the best possession receivers in the league among RBs.