Miami @ Green Bay props

In this game, Christian Watson is projected by the projections to rank in the 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.8 targets. The model projects Christian Watson to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game in this contest (20.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played). In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. Christian Watson's 61.7% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant progression in his receiving prowess over last season's 55.0% mark.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 130.6 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Tucker Kraft has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (83.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.0%). The model projects Tucker Kraft to garner 5.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends. In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 59.5% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 130.6 plays on offense called: the 5th-most among all games this week. Jonnu Smith's receiving skills have been refined this year, averaging 4.3 adjusted receptions vs just 3.3 last year. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (82.4%) vs. tight ends this year (82.4%).

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Packers to pass on 56.0% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Josh Jacobs's 13.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 20.5.

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Packers to pass on 56.0% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week. The Miami cornerbacks profile as the 10th-best group of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (80.6%) vs. running backs this year (80.6%). When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Green Bay's safety corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 59.5% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 130.6 plays on offense called: the 5th-most among all games this week. The Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 59.8 plays per game. The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.