Baltimore @ Tampa Bay props

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game. Cade Otton's 64.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a material diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 69.8% rate. The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

Opposing teams have averaged 42.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. In this game, Isaiah Likely is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.1 targets. Isaiah Likely's 35.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 16.0. The Baltimore offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board. Isaiah Likely ranks as one of the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 3.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game. The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

With a 4-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.2% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week. At the moment, the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Ravens. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's CB corps has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the best in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game. This year, the imposing Baltimore Ravens defense has given up a mere 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

With a 4-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.2% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week. At the moment, the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Ravens. Derrick Henry's 54.3% snap rate this year shows a noteable progression in his offensive usage over last year's 43.5% mark. Derrick Henry's 87.7% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a remarkable reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 90.7% figure.