Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati props

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The model projects Mike Gesicki to accumulate 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs. Mike Gesicki's 28.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 18.9. Mike Gesicki's 3.4 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a remarkable boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 2.0 mark.

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. The Cincinnati offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board. Chase Brown's 83.8% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a remarkable regression in his receiving skills over last season's 93.3% mark. The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Steelers grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year.

This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs. The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.6 plays per game. With an extraordinary 76.0% Route% (86th percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth rates as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football. Pat Freiermuth rates as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs. The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.6 plays per game. Najee Harris has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 10.3% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among running backs. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.5%) to running backs this year (88.5%).

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. In this game, Ja'Marr Chase is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 96th percentile among wideouts with 9.7 targets. With an impressive 6.7 adjusted catches per game (97th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase rates among the best WRs in the game in the league. Ja'Marr Chase's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 71.2% to 76.1%.