Tennessee @ Washington props

Right now, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans. The model projects the Titans to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Commanders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 29.5 per game) this year. The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. Calvin Ridley's play as a receiver has worsened this year, accumulating a mere 3.6 adjusted receptions compared to 4.6 last year.

Right now, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans. The model projects the Titans to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Commanders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 29.5 per game) this year. Chigoziem Okonkwo's 10.5% Target% this season shows a remarkable diminishment in his passing attack workload over last season's 16.4% rate. The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 6 points. The projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. This year, the imposing Tennessee Titans defense has yielded a feeble 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-lowest rate in football. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 6th-best in football.

Right now, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans. The model projects the Titans to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Commanders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 29.5 per game) this year. The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 83.5% to 76.0%.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a massive 58.5 per game on average).

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a massive 58.5 per game on average). In this week's game, Zach Ertz is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.1 targets. With an exceptional 19.9% Target Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Zach Ertz rates among the tight ends with the highest volume in football. With a stellar 4.1 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz stands as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game in football.