Arizona @ Minnesota props

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The model projects the Cardinals as the 10th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. Trey McBride's play as a receiver has been refined this year, notching 6.1 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 4.7 last year.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate on the slate this week. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to notch 7.0 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile among TEs. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year. T.J. Hockenson's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 75.2% to 81.3%.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate on the slate this week. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. The model projects Justin Jefferson to garner 10.1 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 30.6% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile among wideouts. The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.8%) to WRs this year (68.8%).

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate on the slate this week. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Aaron Jones's 50.5% Route% this season indicates a material progression in his passing offense usage over last season's 37.6% figure. With a stellar 2.9 adjusted catches per game (89th percentile) this year, Aaron Jones places among the top RBs in the pass game in the NFL. This year, the poor Cardinals pass defense has yielded a colossal 91.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-highest rate in the league.

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The model projects the Cardinals as the 10th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. With a terrific 2.6 adjusted receptions per game (78th percentile) this year, James Conner places as one of the leading pass-catching RBs in football.

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The model projects the Cardinals as the 10th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.