Miami @ Indianapolis props

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Josh Downs to notch 8.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Josh Downs has been a more important option in his offense's passing offense this season (29.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.2%). Josh Downs's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this year, accumulating 7.1 adjusted catches vs a measly 4.0 last year.

The Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup QB Tyler Huntley in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Miami Dolphins have called the most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.8 plays per game. This year, the porous Indianapolis Colts pass defense has allowed a staggering 91.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.

The Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup QB Tyler Huntley in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Miami Dolphins have called the most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.8 plays per game. This year, the poor Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 5th-worst rate in football.

The Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup QB Tyler Huntley in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Miami Dolphins have called the most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.8 plays per game. Devon Achane's 4.2 adjusted catches per game this year represents a material improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 2.5 rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Trey Sermon's 26.7% Route Participation% this season marks a meaningful growth in his passing game usage over last season's 9.8% mark. The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board. Trey Sermon's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this season, totaling 1.4 adjusted catches vs a mere 0.4 last season.

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3 points. The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Indianapolis Colts have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.0 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league. This year, the strong Dolphins defense has conceded a measly 64.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.