New York @ Pittsburgh props

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are forecasted by the projections to run just 62.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week. Davante Adams's 64.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 86.5.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are forecasted by the projections to run just 63.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week. The predictive model expects Garrett Wilson to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing offense in this week's game (24.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (31.0% in games he has played).

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are forecasted by the projections to run just 62.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.5%) vs. tight ends this year (70.5%). As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 51.2% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see just 126.3 total plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL. Najee Harris's 76.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 84.7% rate. The Jets linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 51.2% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see just 126.3 total plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL. This year, the fierce New York Jets defense has allowed a meager 58.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL. The Jets linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off. The model projects Pat Freiermuth to earn 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs. Pat Freiermuth profiles as one of the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 3.7 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 88th percentile. Pat Freiermuth's 88.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents an impressive progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 73.2% rate.

The Jets rank as the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 68.3% pass rate. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume. Breece Hall's 62.2% Route% this season illustrates an impressive progression in his passing game usage over last season's 47.8% figure. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (91%) versus RBs this year (91.0%).