Houston @ Jacksonville props

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. Right now, the 8th-fastest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Our trusted projections expect Travis Etienne to garner 4.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs. The Jaguars O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

The Texans are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Texans profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year. Joe Mixon's 69.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a material decline in his receiving talent over last season's 83.5% figure.

This year, the tough Texans defense has allowed a mere 59.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league. The Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best CB corps in football this year in defending receivers.

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. Right now, the 8th-fastest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars. In this week's game, Evan Engram is expected by the model to finish in the 98th percentile among tight ends with 9.1 targets. Evan Engram's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 45.4. The Jaguars O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (61.8% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Texans. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.84 seconds per snap. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.4 per game) this year. With a top-tier 76.9% Route Participation Rate (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz places as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football. The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to total 4.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (61.8% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Texans. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.84 seconds per snap. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.4 per game) this year. In this contest, Nico Collins is projected by the predictive model to place in the 90th percentile among WRs with 9.0 targets. Nico Collins's 66.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 52.5.