Indianapolis @ Houston props

A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -5-point underdog in this game. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this game, Josh Downs is expected by the model to rank in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.8 targets. Josh Downs's 5.7 adjusted catches per game this season shows a remarkable progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 4.0 mark.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.1 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week. The Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game. With an impressive 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs has been among the best pass-catching WRs in the league. This year, the deficient Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded a staggering 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-worst rate in the league.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 53.8% of their downs: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week. The Colts have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.7 plays per game. With a measly 1.3 adjusted receptions per game (23rd percentile) this year, Mo Alie-Cox rates among the weakest TE receiving threats in the NFL. This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has conceded a feeble 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 10th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.1 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week. The Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The model projects Joe Mixon to accrue 4.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -5-point underdog in this game. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the best in the league this year.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.1 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week. The Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the porous Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.