Best NFL Picks Today

Christian Watson is trading at 41% on Kalshi to score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football against the Carolina Panthers, and I'll hit the button at that price as I value his chances closer to 47%. With Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson still out at cornerback, and the Panthers deploying single-high coverage at a much higher rate than most teams, Watson should have opportunities to exploit one-on-one matchups on the boundary. Those isolation routes give him a chance to win his matchup and find the end zone.

The Bengals averaged 7.0 yards per play and went 5 for 5 in the red zone against a very good Baltimore defense. Cincinnati has put up 27 points or more in four of its six games and the Bengals sink their teeth into the Tennessee Titans in Week 8. Cincinnati’s offense will do the lion’s share of the scoring, and its defense will likely give up some gains too. The Bengals still allowed the Ravens to go 9 for 16 on third downs and sit third worst in third down defense.

One of the first stats I look at when evaluating taking an Under is red-zone touchdown conversion rate, and this matchup features two of the NFL's least efficient offenses inside the 20-yard line. The Jets come into this one with a paltry 45% red-zone touchdown rate, with the Raiders not too far behind, converting at just 46%. No matter which way you attack this game, it's difficult to see a ton of points being scored. While the Raiders leave a lot on the table defensively, the Jets offense, with just four rushing touchdowns to its name this year behind their 16th-ranked offensive line, won't do enough with the ball to get this one over the line.

The Bills are coming off a bye week and playing at home for the first time in almost a month. Buffalo’s break allows the offense to get some key bodies back on the field, including WR1 D.J. Moore. Jackson won’t be as nimble against a Bills pass rush getting consistent pressure (and Ed Oliver back in Week 8) and that takes away a big part of this Ravens rushing attack. 

The Chargers could get two top WRs back on the field along with starters on the offensive line. Those are big positives for QB Justin Herbert. On defense, the L.A. secondary could get a restock in talent with CBs Donte Jackson and Rodney Shelley practicing and S Derwin James working his way back from a hammy. This is essentially a neutral-site game in SoFi Stadium against a Rams squad that’s picked up wins over Las Vegas, Philadelphia, and the N.Y. Giants. Not exactly the resume of a Super Bowl contender.

New England QB Drake Maye paces the NFL in adjusted EPA per play over the past four weeks, and the Pats are third in offensive DVOA with an average of 31 points per game during the surge. Miami checks in 31st in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA for the season, so with New England also having the benefit of extra rest and preparation time after playing Thursday Night Football in Week 7, the Dolphins are in tough and overmatched Sunday.

This prop is in play to 50% because Denver has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, and the Broncos have already allowed five QBs to scramper for 15 or more yards across their seven games. Mahomes has also rushed seven times for 30 yards the past two weeks, and the Broncos topping the league in PFF pass rush grade will have the veteran QB on the move early and often Sunday. Of course, Mahomes has totalled a healthy 5.75 yards per scramble this season, too.

To the Eagles’ credit, they were able to hang tough on MNF with a backup QB missing his top two WRs and a rusty Saquon Barkley coming back from injury. Philadelphia actually ranked No. 5 in EPA per play through the first 45 minutes among all Week 7 offenses. Washington gets little support from the stop unit, which is ranked in the bottom 10 in many key metrics like success rate allowed, opponent third down conversions, and red zone defense (dead last with foes enjoying an almost 82% TD rate).