San Francisco @ Buffalo props

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the model to call just 60.5 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week. The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a measly 56.8 per game on average). The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. As it relates to pass protection (and the influence it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 52.8% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 122.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week. The Buffalo Bills have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the 49ers, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.2 per game) this year. The projections expect Jauan Jennings to accrue 7.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Jauan Jennings has been much more involved in his offense's passing game this year (24.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (8.8%). Jauan Jennings's 5.3 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a material growth in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 1.6 figure.

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 52.8% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 122.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week. The Buffalo Bills have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

In this week's contest, Dawson Knox is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets. The model projects Dawson Knox to be much more involved in his offense's air attack in this game (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.8% in games he has played).

This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the 49ers, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.2 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to garner 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 22.9% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle's receiving skills have gotten better this season, accumulating 5.5 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 4.0 last season.