New Orleans @ Los Angeles props

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chargers being an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.5% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a lowly 55.7 per game on average). In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Chargers profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.

The model projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume. The Saints defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year. In this contest, Will Dissly is forecasted by the model to position himself in the 84th percentile among tight ends with 5.1 targets. Will Dissly's 16.1% Target Share this year conveys a significant boost in his passing attack usage over last year's 3.5% rate.

Right now, the 5th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (57.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.3 per game) this year. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in football this year. Alvin Kamara's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 86.4% to 78.8%. The Chargers pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (77%) vs. RBs this year (77.0%).

This game's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Saints, who are heavy -7.5-point underdogs. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projection model to call 65.5 total plays in this game: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down. In this week's contest, Chris Olave is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 93rd percentile among wide receivers with 8.3 targets. While Chris Olave has received 18.0% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New Orleans's passing offense in this week's contest at 25.2%.

The model projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume. The Saints defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year. The Saints linebackers profile as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to pass rush.

Right now, the 5th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (57.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.3 per game) this year. Juwan Johnson's 18.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 30.8. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in football this year.