New York @ New England props

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the 11th-lowest clip among all teams this week. The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The New England Patriots have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.7 plays per game. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 10th-fewest in football. The Patriots O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are heavily favored in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan. The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to accrue 5.9 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs. Hunter Henry's 46.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 33.2. Hunter Henry profiles as one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a remarkable 3.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 88th percentile. Hunter Henry's 76.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies an impressive progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 68.4% rate.

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New York Jets. Breece Hall has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (64.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.8%). This week, Breece Hall is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.8 targets. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the New York Jets profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year. Breece Hall checks in as one of the leading pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 4.6 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New York Jets. Tyler Conklin has been used less as a potential target this year (83.2% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (67.7%). The model projects Tyler Conklin to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the New York Jets profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year. With a stellar 3.3 adjusted catches per game (76th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin places as one of the top TEs in the pass game in the league.

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New York Jets. In this contest, Garrett Wilson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.1 targets. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the New York Jets profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year. Garrett Wilson's receiving skills have gotten better this season, notching 6.7 adjusted receptions compared to just 5.6 last season. This year, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has allowed a massive 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are heavily favored in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan. In this week's game, Demario Douglas is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 75th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.5 targets. With an outstanding 4.4 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas ranks among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL. Demario Douglas's 77.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a remarkable boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 64.1% figure.