Jacksonville @ Tennessee props

The Titans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 53.1% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week. The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 56.3 per game on average). Calvin Ridley's receiving performance has diminished this year, notching a measly 3.5 adjusted catches compared to 4.6 last year.

The Titans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 53.1% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week. The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 56.3 per game on average). Chigoziem Okonkwo comes in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football among TEs, catching a mere 70.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 18th percentile.

The predictive model expects the Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 63.2 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Titans defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Tennessee's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

The predictive model expects the Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 63.2 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Titans defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. Evan Engram's 5.4 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a significant decline in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.7 figure.

The Jaguars will be forced to use backup QB Mac Jones in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. A passing game script is implied by the Jaguars being a -3-point underdog this week. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Jaguars grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (86.6%) vs. running backs this year (86.6%).

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. The model projects Tony Pollard to earn 3.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. Tony Pollard has been in the 97th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 22.1 figure this year. With an excellent 3.1 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) this year, Tony Pollard has been as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in football. This year, the porous Jaguars pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 86.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 8th-worst rate in football.