Las Vegas @ Tampa Bay props

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a huge -7-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Opposing teams have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: most in the NFL. Jakobi Meyers's 5.9 adjusted receptions per game this year marks an impressive boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 4.5 mark.

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.3% pass rate. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off. In this game, Cade Otton is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets. Cade Otton has been much more involved in his offense's passing game this year (19.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.8%). The Tampa Bay O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a huge -7-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Opposing teams have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: most in the NFL. This year, the poor Buccaneers pass defense has been torched for a whopping 88.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a huge -7-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Opposing teams have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: most in the NFL. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (81.9%) vs. TEs this year (81.9%).

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.3% pass rate. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off. The predictive model expects Mike Evans to total 8.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack in this game (26.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (20.9% in games he has played). With an impressive 4.3 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Mike Evans stands among the best WRs in the game in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.3% pass rate. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off. The Tampa Bay O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board. The Raiders pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (95.3%) versus RBs this year (95.3%). When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Las Vegas's group of LBs has been awful this year, profiling as the worst in the league.