Green Bay @ Detroit props

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week. The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Detroit Lions defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. Josh Jacobs's 85.1% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a significant improvement in his receiving prowess over last season's 69.0% rate.

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week. The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Detroit Lions defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. With an outstanding 83.5% Adjusted Completion Rate (78th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.

The predictive model expects the Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. In this game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.0 targets. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 28.4% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among WRs. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 83.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a remarkable boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 75.1% mark.

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week. The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Detroit Lions defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year. Jayden Reed's 77.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a meaningful gain in his pass-catching talent over last season's 72.1% figure.

The predictive model expects the Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The leading projections forecast Sam LaPorta to notch 5.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends. Sam LaPorta's 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a meaningful boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 71.7% figure. This year, the porous Packers pass defense has allowed a massive 83.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst rate in the league.

The predictive model expects the Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to accumulate 3.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs's 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a substantial improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 73.7% mark.