Best NFL Picks Today

The line moving from +3.5 to +5.5 is just too much for me, so I'll bite on Detroit in what should be a shootout on Thursday Night Football. Dan Campbell knows how to get his guys ready for primetime, too - he's 13-3 SU and 3-0 on TNF in his career. If the Houston Texans can drop 31 points on this Bills defense, what will the Lions do? Let's bank on this high-octane offense to keep it close.

After being held out of the end zone in Week 1, I’m anticipating Barkley scoring against the Titans. Tennessee finished 28th in run defense DVOA and 24th in PFF run defense grade while allowing 142 rushing yards to backs in the season opener, and now they face an elite offensive line that ranked 10th in run block win rate last week. Of course, Barkley also handled 33.8% of the touches and 48.3% of the carries inside the red zone last year.

This is one of the best +EV TDs on the board, per THE BLITZ, which has this fair price at 4.8x, or a 20.8% probability of scoring. Pat Freiermuth saw a bigger route share in Week 1 than his 72% mark last season and saw six targets for a 5-46-1 line while cashing a 4.75x TD. The 6.5x price is just wrong. The tight end had the only WR/TE red-zone targets in Week 1, with two, and scored on one of them. His RZ role is looking good, especially with the ground game looking subpar.

After running 10 times for 65 yards and two scores last week, Caleb Williams' TD price hasn't seen a big correction after closing at 20% in Week 1. Williams should not be this long for a TD after a 59-point game and as the seventh-most probable Bear to score. Even in the two meetings last season against the Vikings, the Chicago quarterback ran 10 times for 84 yards and a score. The Vikings' all-out blitz defense only helps create big-gain rushing opportunities for opposing QBs, while the Packers also put up 419 yards of offense against Minnesota, which was a bottom-five mark last week. Williams likely won't take off 10 times again, but if this offense stays aggressive, his TD price could drop. That's a price I'm willing to pay this week at 25% or better.

The Falcons are a no-go with their QB play, and Chuba Hubbard is the man in this Carolina offense, which won't go up and down the field like they did against Chicago every week. Hubbard is a great play here at 55.6% or lower, or 1.8x. The RB1 took almost 80% of the RB snaps before the final drive, and Jonathan Brooks, coming back from multiple lengthy injuries, received just 12 offensive snaps. It was also Hubbard who got all four of the RB red-zone opportunities, which he turned into two scores at 2.2x. I thought about chasing the Jalen Coker TD, but Hubbard is a needed safe floor when you have a lengthy TD card. Carolina is going to dominate the TOP and run the ball all day.

This is still a +EV TD with a fair price of 3.5x (28.6%), and it's easy to see why. Braelon Allen saw double-digit carries last week against the Titans and played the majority of the snaps on third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go. It was Breece Hall getting the red-zone carries, but there weren't any short TD opportunities, and Allen handled the majority of the third-down work. The Packers gave up TDs to both Minnesota backs last week and were one of the worst teams in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on all four Minnesota opportunities inside the 20. Their turnovers and penalties can only help New York keep a neutral game script.

I got this at 10.5% (9.5x) and would play this to 7x (14.2%). Durham Smythe might have even more opportunities than last week with the injuries to the Baltimore pass-catchers. Smythe played 62% of the snaps in Week 1, had one RZ target, and might see his routes increase with Ja'Kobi Lane out and Zay Flowers banged up. The Ravens ran heavy sets at a 53% rate last week against the Colts, and with so much uncertainty around the WR rotation, especially with the possibility of Devontez Walker coming back, I'll take a half-unit long shot on a guy playing a decent amount of snaps in an offense that's humming out of the gates.

This might be the best price we get for Chase Brown all season. He should not be 50% or lower in any game, and this price is giving the Texans too much credit after a similar top-tier offense just put up 36 points and 409 total yards in Houston last week. Chase Brown got six of the seven running back red-zone opportunities last week, including all three carries inside the five, where he cashed a -125 touchdown. He's scored seven TDs over his last four games dating back to last season, and I have him at a base probability of 55.6% against an average defense.

Sometimes people in the dumps need some support, and that's where I am with Deshaun Watson this week at a 7x TD price that should not be more than 5x. He had a very difficult Week 1 matchup against that Jaguars defense. Things should be a little easier against the Buccaneers, who allowed 5.6 yards per play and five red-zone opportunities to the Bengals. Watson ran six times last week for 38 yards, including twice in the red zone, and was one of only eight QBs who had multiple RZ rushes in Week 1. He's locked into the No. 1 role and will want to silence the Cleveland fans in Week 3 in the home opener with at least something positive this week. Just think of the bragging rights you'll get if you cash a 7x Watson TD when the world is rooting against him.

I got this at 3.7x and would play to 3.2x. The Raiders should be playing in a negative game script on Sunday, and Michael Mayer could be the most-targeted Raider in an indoor game against a Chargers team that is in a must-win spot in Week 2. Last week as the TE1, Mayer led the Silver and Black in target share at 24% and targets per route run at 30%. He had seven targets and caught six balls, with the Raiders playing with the lead from start to finish. He was also one of three pass-catchers to see a target in the red zone. He isn't running deep routes, but that's a good thing when his QB is Kirk Cousins. He could have a big-volume game if Las Vegas is forced to pass more than its 46% rate in Week 1.

The Commanders overcame a no-show first half in Philadelphia and looked very strong offensively in the final 30 minutes, amassing almost 200 yards and 13 points against the Eagles’ elite stop unit. Washington was No. 6 in EPA per play in 2H offense last week. Defensively, the Commies dialed up the chaos. New defensive coordinator Daronte Jones blitzed at the fifth highest rate among all Week 1 stop units, boiling up the ninth best pressure rate and three sacks. That was against Philly’s protection, which rates out as a Top 5 o-line. The Cowboys offensive line is nowhere close to that and losing LG Tyler Smith showed up against New York last Sunday night.

Jones was under fire from the Baltimore defense in the opener. Despite all that pressure, Jones ran only one time for four yards. He’s a sneaky fast quarterback who broke away for at least 10 rushing yards in five of his 13 starts last year, including 16 yards on three carries versus Kansas City in Week 12. He was also playing hurt in most of those starts. On top of running away from the Chiefs pass rush on Sunday night, Jones often gets his number called on short yardage situations. His Week 1 rushing total was 10.5 O/U and his projections sat as high as 21 yards. After than lone carry versus Baltimore, this market is shrinking but forecasts still sit north of 10 rushing yards with a ceiling of 21 yards again. My number comes out to 18+ gains on the ground.

Sean McVay is an excellent game planner with added time he'll work out the kinks on this offense. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get going against the 49ers but faces a softer stop unit from the Giants. New York’s defense looked much better than it truly was in Week 1, due to the offense grinding out gains and chewing up TOP. The Cowboys offense only had two second half possessions and while it was limited in action, Dallas ranked out well in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per play DVOA. This is a fast track indoor at SoFi Stadium and it doesn’t seem likely that L.A.’s offense gets bottled up for a second straight game.