New York @ Tennessee props

The Jets are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a running game script. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 126.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week. In regards to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the strong Titans defense has yielded a paltry 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 2nd-smallest rate in football. The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see only 126.4 total plays called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans since the start of last season (only 54.6 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense last year: 4th-fewest in the league. When talking about pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Titans grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season. The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.3%) to TEs last year (70.3%).

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 61.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week. Calvin Ridley has run a route on 92.9% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 91st percentile among WRs. In this game, Calvin Ridley is predicted by the model to place in the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 7.9 targets. With a fantastic 4.5 adjusted catches per game (84th percentile) since the start of last season, Calvin Ridley rates among the best WRs in the NFL in football.

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 61.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week. Tony Pollard has run a route on 58.4% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs. In this game, Tony Pollard is predicted by the model to slot into the 83rd percentile among RBs with 3.4 targets. Tony Pollard checks in as one of the top pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.2 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 59.7% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week. The Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing better weather this week. Garrett Wilson has run a route on 98.1% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among WRs. Garrett Wilson ranks as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL last year, averaging an outstanding 5.6 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.1%) to wideouts since the start of last season (71.1%).

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 59.7% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week. The Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing better weather this week. In this week's game, Tyler Conklin is predicted by the model to rank in the 76th percentile among TEs with 4.0 targets. Tyler Conklin rates as one of the top pass-catching tight ends last year, averaging a stellar 3.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.4%) versus TEs since the start of last season (79.4%).