Jacksonville @ Buffalo props

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach. The model projects the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The Jaguars have called the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 58.9 plays per game. With a remarkable 89.7% Route Participation% (84th percentile) since the start of last season, Gabriel Davis places among the wide receivers with the highest volume in football. The Bills pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.1%) versus WRs since the start of last season (68.1%).

A running game script is suggested by the Bills being a 4.5-point favorite in this game. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.4% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football. The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this week's game (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.7% in games he has played). The Buffalo offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, completing an outstanding 87.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among WRs.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by the projection model to run only 60.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football. The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to garner 5.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends. Dalton Kincaid has been a key part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 17.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among tight ends. The Buffalo offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Dalton Kincaid comes in as one of the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.1 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.