Kansas City @ Las Vegas props

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Raiders are predicted by the projection model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.9%) versus RBs since the start of last season (86.9%). The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Raiders, who are heavily favored by 7 points. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.1% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Chiefs defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.0 per game) this year. With an exceptional 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (87th percentile) this year, Jakobi Meyers has been as one of the best wide receivers in the league in the league.

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.8% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. With a remarkable 87.9% Route% (100th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce stands among the TEs with the most usage in the league. The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to earn 8.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Raiders, who are heavily favored by 7 points. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.1% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Chiefs defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.0 per game) this year.

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.8% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.

With a 9-point advantage, the Chiefs are a heavy favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.01 seconds per snap. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. Kareem Hunt's 58.1% snap rate this year indicates an impressive gain in his offensive utilization over last year's 32.8% figure.