Miami @ Houston props

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week. With regard to a defense's influence on pace, at 26.66 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's game, Dalton Schultz is predicted by the projections to place in the 89th percentile among TEs with 6.0 targets. Dalton Schultz slots into the 88th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 33.7 figure this year.

The projections expect the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Tyreek Hill's 59.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 77.5. Tyreek Hill's pass-catching performance declined this season, accumulating just 4.9 adjusted catches vs 7.4 last season. Tyreek Hill's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 71.2% to 67.5%. The Houston Texans pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (58.9%) to WRs this year (58.9%).

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week. With regard to a defense's influence on pace, at 26.66 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. This week, Nico Collins is expected by the model to find himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.0 targets. The Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.6%) versus wideouts this year (69.6%).

The model projects the Dolphins to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 7th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a massive 60.2 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. The leading projections forecast Jonnu Smith to earn 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Jonnu Smith's 4.7 adjusted catches per game this season represents a significant boost in his receiving skills over last season's 3.3 mark.

The Texans O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board. Joe Mixon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 83.5% to 71.7%.

The model projects the Dolphins to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 7th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a massive 60.2 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. Devon Achane has gone out for more passes this season (59.5% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (43.4%). Devon Achane's 4.9 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 2.5 mark.