Philadelphia @ New Orleans props

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.3% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.50 seconds per play. The New Orleans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass game stats across the board.

A passing game script is indicated by the Saints being a -3-point underdog this week. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (37.6 per game) since the start of last season. While Foster Moreau has earned 5.5% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be much more involved in New Orleans's pass game in this game at 12.0%. With an outstanding 85.5% Adjusted Completion Rate (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Foster Moreau places as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.

A passing game script is indicated by the Saints being a -3-point underdog this week. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (37.6 per game) since the start of last season. In this week's contest, Alvin Kamara is anticipated by the model to slot into the 99th percentile among RBs with 6.6 targets. Alvin Kamara is positioned as one of the top pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 5.3 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual approach. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. Since the start of last season, the fierce Saints defense has surrendered a meager 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's safety corps has been great since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual approach. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. Saquon Barkley is positioned as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, catching a mere 73.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 16th percentile. Since the start of last season, the tough Saints defense has surrendered a measly 72.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the best rate in football. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's safety corps has been great since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Eagles are expected by the predictive model to run 65.2 total plays in this contest: the 9th-highest number on the slate this week. The Eagles have run the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The predictive model expects DeVonta Smith to garner 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs. With an excellent 4.9 adjusted catches per game (90th percentile) since the start of last season, DeVonta Smith stands among the leading wide receivers in the NFL in football.