New England @ New York picks

Hall was limited to 54 yards on 16 carries in Week 1 before rushing for 62 yards on 14 carries last week. Now he faces a Pats defense that is holding opponents to just 58 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. Not only will Hall have a tougher than usual time going up against New England's defense but he could start ceding carries to backup Braelon Allen. The fourth-round rookie saw his snap share increase to 35% in Week 2 and made the most of his opportunities. Allen rushed seven times for 33 yards while adding another 23 yards through the air, and could continue cutting into Hall's reps which limits his ceiling as a runner.

Henry was quiet in Week 1 but he emerged as Jacoby Brissett's top weapon last week, hauling in eight of 12 targets for 109 yards. Henry isn't going to consistently perform at that level but his receiving yards total of 31.5 seems too low moving forward. Sure, 109 yards is an obvious outlier but 12 targets is a good indication that he'll continue to get plenty of looks. Especially with New England having the weakest WR corps in the league and desperately needing a reliable target for Brissett. Brissett has barely thrown the ball through the first two weeks but the Pats were playing with neutral or positive game scripts. If they fall behind early here, Brissett will see his pass attempts rise which would also buoy Henry's receiving numbers. 

We released this on NFL Prop Picks Powered by THE BLITZ Wednesday. Allen Lazard won people money in Week 1 with a 6/89/2 on nine targets vs. the 49ers. Unfortunately, a lot of that was cumulated in garbage time with the Jets trailing. Before the 49ers had a 26-7 lead in the third quarter, the receiver had zero catches on two targets. He had no role when the game was close and ended up with a 2/11/0 line on four targets in Week 2 in a game that did not include garbage time. The Jets are a 6-point favorite and expected not to lean on the passing game on Thursday night -- especially late. There are also more snaps going to Mike Williams who ran 20 routes in Week 2 compared to his four in Week 1. Lazard's routes decreased week-on-week from 28 in Week 1 to 22 last week. He projects for 2.3 receptions. 

We released this on NFL Prop Picks Powered by THE BLITZ on Wednesday as a PLAY with a projection of 1.84 yards. Rodgers is playing his third game in 11 days and isn't expected to scramble for yards. He has three carries this year for one yard which includes two kneel downs. The kneel-down equity is huge here as a 6-point favorite. The 2.5-point total also gives us a little breathing room if he does do a QB sneak and gains a couple yards. He could go Over this number, but then erase some yards on victory kneels at the end of the game. It's a small number, but don't be afraid to hit that Under, this projects as one of the best TNF bets and will close shorter than the -120 price tag. 

In terms of the passing game, Henry is all New England has. He was targeted 12 times for eight grabs against Seattle The game script for TNF already has the +6.5 Patriots playing from behind and o-line injuries could have them in long down-and-distance spots, prompting passes under pressure. Henry was Jacoby Brissett's safety blanket last week and will get his share of targets on TNF. Projections are higher than four grabs with some models and there could be more with Jets coverage LB C.J. Mosely potentially out with injury on the short week.

While it’s been a slow start for Rodgers, this is also a deflated total, and improvement is coming to his pedestrian 6.7 YPA and a 6.8 aDoT. A continued uptick in snaps for veteran receiver Mike Williams makes the passing attack more dynamic, and I’m also anticipating Rodgers attacking downfield more in Thursday’s home opener. Plus, the Patriots have injuries on defense and allowed Seahawks QB Geno Smith to throw for a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt and post the third-highest dropback success rate (54.9%) last week.

Allen went from one carry (eight snaps) in Week 1 to seven carries (20 snaps) in Week 2 and had an important role late where he scored the game-winning TD from 20 yards out. He got snaps in the red zone, was trusted with pass protection, and could have an increased role on a short week this Thursday. His rushing total opend at 15.5 and I bought a share of that and his 25+ at +215. Breece Hall will get his workload as he had 21 touches to Allen's nine last week, but the rookie is trusted in this offense and is coming off a game where he scored two of the team's three TDs. The Jets might want to limit Hall's snaps on the short week especailly after appearing to pick up an injury Sunday that needed a visit to the tent. Additionally, Aaron Rodgers was on the Pat McAfee show on Tuesday saying how both backs are studs and they're going to be a big part of the offense. That's an easy Over on a modest number for a back who get 10 carries.