MetLife Stadium
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a heavy -7.5-point underdog in this week's game.
With a 7.5-point advantage, the Jets are a huge favorite in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see just 122.4 total plays run: the lowest number on the slate this week. The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board. The Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.9%) to tight ends since the start of last season (68.9%).
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (63.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New York Jets. New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats increased) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with improved weather in this week's contest. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league. The model projects Breece Hall to earn 6.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs. Breece Hall has been one of the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a heavy -7.5-point underdog in this week's game. Rhamondre Stevenson has run a route on 56.3% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs. The leading projections forecast Rhamondre Stevenson to total 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs. With a remarkable 3.0 adjusted catches per game (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson places as one of the leading pass-game running backs in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 55.5% pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see just 122.4 plays on offense run: the lowest number among all games this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in the league. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board. With a lackluster 68.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (15th percentile) since the start of last season, Hunter Henry stands as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to TEs.
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (63.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New York Jets. New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats increased) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with improved weather in this week's contest. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league. With a top-tier 98.2% Route Participation% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson places as one of the WRs with the highest volume in football. The model projects Garrett Wilson to accumulate 9.5 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.
