New England @ New York props

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a heavy -7.5-point underdog in this week's game. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Rhamondre Stevenson has run a route on 56.3% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs. The leading projections forecast Rhamondre Stevenson to total 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs. With a remarkable 3.0 adjusted catches per game (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson places as one of the leading pass-game running backs in the NFL.

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a heavy -7.5-point underdog in this week's game. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. This week, Hunter Henry is predicted by the predictive model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among tight ends with 6.0 targets. Hunter Henry's 36.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 88th percentile for tight ends. With a terrific 3.0 adjusted receptions per game (78th percentile) since the start of last season, Hunter Henry stands among the top pass-game tight ends in the NFL.

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Jets are a huge favorite in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan. The predictive model expects the Jets to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board. The Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69%) to tight ends since the start of last season (69.0%).

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Patriots being a heavy -7.5-point underdog in this week's game. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats increased) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with improved weather in this week's contest. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league. With a top-tier 98.2% Route Participation% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson places as one of the WRs with the highest volume in football.

The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats increased) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with improved weather in this week's contest. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league. Breece Hall has been one of the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.