Kansas City @ Atlanta props

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to accumulate 7.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends. With a fantastic 5.7 adjusted catches per game (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Travis Kelce rates as one of the top TE receiving threats in the league.

This game's line implies a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 81.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.6 per game) since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded a feeble 60.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 5th-lowest rate in the league. The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 8th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. In this game, Rashee Rice is projected by the projection model to place in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 9.7 targets. With a stellar 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Rashee Rice rates among the best WRs in the NFL in the league.

This game's line implies a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With an impressive 3.3 adjusted catches per game (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Bijan Robinson rates as one of the best RBs in the pass game in the league.