Miami @ Buffalo props

At the moment, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a feeble 77.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a 6.5-point favorite this week. The model projects the Buffalo Bills as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have only 122.6 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Bills this year (a lowly 52.5 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.4 per game) this year.

At the moment, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Tyreek Hill's 64.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 77.5. Tyreek Hill's pass-catching performance worsened this year, accumulating just 3.9 adjusted receptions compared to 7.4 last year. Tyreek Hill's 55.0% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving ability over last year's 71.2% figure.

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a colossal 62.6 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. In this contest, Jonnu Smith is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.4 targets. Jonnu Smith ranks as one of the top pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.5 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs. Khalil Shakir's 20.6% Target% this season reflects an impressive gain in his passing attack utilization over last season's 7.8% rate. Khalil Shakir's 5.2 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a significant progression in his receiving skills over last year's 2.4 figure. Khalil Shakir's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 86.7% to 98.6%. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.6%) vs. wideouts this year (68.6%).

The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to earn 6.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among tight ends. Dalton Kincaid's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 35.1. The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the 8th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.