Dallas @ Atlanta props

This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 64.6% of their chances: the highest clip among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see 138.0 plays on offense called: the highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense this year: 10th-most in football. Jake Ferguson's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, totaling 5.2 adjusted catches compared to a mere 4.2 last season.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this week's contest, Drake London is projected by the projections to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.1 targets. Drake London's 66.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 57.9. Drake London's 6.0 adjusted catches per game this year conveys an impressive gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 4.3 mark.

This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 64.6% of their chances: the highest clip among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see 138.0 plays on offense called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.3 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense this year: 10th-most in football.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The predictive model expects Bijan Robinson to accrue 5.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs. With an exceptional 3.9 adjusted catches per game (94th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson stands as one of the top RB receiving threats in the NFL. Bijan Robinson's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 69.8% to 91.6%.

CeeDee Lamb's 60.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 71.1. The Cowboys offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board. CeeDee Lamb's pass-catching performance worsened this year, accumulating a measly 6.5 adjusted catches vs 7.9 last year. CeeDee Lamb's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 67.3%. The Falcons safeties grade out as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

With a 3-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL. Kyle Pitts's 37.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 44.8.