Miami @ Seattle props

The Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Dolphins have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest. With an impressive 3.0 adjusted receptions per game (78th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonnu Smith has been as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in the NFL. The Seahawks pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.9%) to tight ends since the start of last season (76.9%).

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 130.9 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Our trusted projections expect Noah Fant to accumulate 4.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile among tight ends. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Miami's unit has been dreadful since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins as the 11th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 56.5 per game on average). Tyreek Hill's 53.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a substantial decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 71.2% figure. The Seahawks safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 130.9 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. With a sizeable 90.1% Route Participation Rate (86th percentile) since the start of last season, D.K. Metcalf ranks as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in football. D.K. Metcalf ranks as one of the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 4.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 130.9 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. With a sizeable 45.3% Route Participation% (77th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Charbonnet rates among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the league. In this week's contest, Zach Charbonnet is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.4 targets.

The Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Dolphins have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. Devon Achane profiles as one of the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.