GB 3.5 o51.5
DET -3.5 u51.5
CAR 13.0 o46.0
PHI -13.0 u46.0
ATL 4.5 o46.0
MIN -4.5 u46.0
NYJ 6.5 o44.5
MIA -6.5 u44.5
JAC 3.5 o39.0
TEN -3.5 u39.0
NO -5.0 o41.0
NYG 5.0 u41.0
LV 7.0 o47.0
TB -7.0 u47.0
CLE 6.5 o41.5
PIT -6.5 u41.5
SEA 2.5 o44.5
ARI -2.5 u44.5
CHI 3.5 o44.0
SF -3.5 u44.0
BUF -4.5 o49.0
LA 4.5 u49.0
LAC 3.5 o42.5
KC -3.5 u42.5
CIN -5.5 o50.5
DAL 5.5 u50.5
Baltimore 2nd AFC North8-5
Dallas 3rd NFC East5-7

Baltimore @ Dallas props

AT&T Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jake Ferguson Receptions Made Props • Dallas

J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.6
Best Odds
Over
-152

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 132.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The 5th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a whopping 60.3 per game on average). The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.6
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.6

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 132.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The 5th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a whopping 60.3 per game on average). The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.

Derrick Henry Receptions Made Props • Baltimore

D. Henry
running back RB • Baltimore
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-170
Prop
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-170
Projection Rating

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football. The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74%) to running backs since the start of last season (74.0%).

Derrick Henry

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.2

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football. The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74%) to running backs since the start of last season (74.0%).

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Made Props • Dallas

E. Elliott
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.2
Best Odds
Over
-184
Prop
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection
2.2
Best Odds
Over
-184
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 132.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The 5th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a whopping 60.3 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. With an impressive 2.8 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Ezekiel Elliott rates among the leading pass-game running backs in the NFL.

Ezekiel Elliott

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.2
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.2

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 132.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The 5th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a whopping 60.3 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. With an impressive 2.8 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Ezekiel Elliott rates among the leading pass-game running backs in the NFL.

Mark Andrews Receptions Made Props • Baltimore

M. Andrews
tight end TE • Baltimore
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.7
Best Odds
Over
-105

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With a remarkable 76.9% Route% (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Mark Andrews places among the TEs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. In this game, Mark Andrews is forecasted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets. With a remarkable 3.9 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Mark Andrews stands as one of the top TEs in the pass game in football.

Mark Andrews

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.7
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.7

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With a remarkable 76.9% Route% (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Mark Andrews places among the TEs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. In this game, Mark Andrews is forecasted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets. With a remarkable 3.9 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Mark Andrews stands as one of the top TEs in the pass game in football.

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Made Props • Dallas

C. Lamb
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.6
Best Odds
Over
-107

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 132.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The 5th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a whopping 60.3 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. CeeDee Lamb ranks as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

CeeDee Lamb

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.6
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.6

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 132.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The 5th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a whopping 60.3 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. CeeDee Lamb ranks as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Zay Flowers Receptions Made Props • Baltimore

Z. Flowers
wide receiver WR • Baltimore
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.9
Best Odds
Over
-155

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With an exceptional 92.5% Route% (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Zay Flowers rates as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in football. In this week's game, Zay Flowers is projected by the model to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.8 targets. Zay Flowers checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Zay Flowers

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.9
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.9

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With an exceptional 92.5% Route% (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Zay Flowers rates as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in football. In this week's game, Zay Flowers is projected by the model to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.8 targets. Zay Flowers checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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