Chicago @ San Francisco props

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have only 123.9 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the 49ers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.5 per game) this year. D.J. Moore's 59.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 76.9. D.J. Moore's 65.9% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last season's 73.2% rate. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.3%) versus WRs this year (59.3%).

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the 49ers to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 61.6 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week. The 49ers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.7 plays per game. The Chicago Bears safeties grade out as the 9th-best safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have only 123.9 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the 49ers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.5 per game) this year. Cole Kmet's 27.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 41.2. Cole Kmet's receiving performance has diminished this year, averaging a mere 3.8 adjusted catches compared to 4.9 last year. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, San Francisco's group of LBs has been excellent this year, profiling as the best in football.

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script. Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (61.9% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Bears. The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game. D'Andre Swift has run a route on 49.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs. D'Andre Swift is positioned as one of the best pass-game RBs this year, averaging a terrific 2.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the 49ers to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 61.6 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week. The 49ers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.7 plays per game. The Chicago Bears safeties grade out as the 9th-best safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.

In this contest, Jauan Jennings is predicted by our trusted projection set to place in the 82nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.7 targets. Jauan Jennings's 25.4% Target Share this season conveys an impressive improvement in his pass attack volume over last season's 8.8% figure. Jauan Jennings's receiving talent has improved this season, averaging 5.1 adjusted receptions vs a mere 1.6 last season. Jauan Jennings's 74.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a remarkable improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 64.5% rate.