Cincinnati @ Baltimore props

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Bengals, who are -6-point underdogs. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 67.5% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league. In this week's game, Chase Brown is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 98th percentile among running backs with 6.0 targets.

The predictive model expects the Bengals to run the 9th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Bengals this year (a mere 54.1 per game on average). When it comes to safeties rushing the passer, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.6 per game) this year. This year, the porous Bengals pass defense has conceded a massive 86.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the league.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Bengals, who are -6-point underdogs. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 67.5% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league. Ja'Marr Chase has been one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 6.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.6 per game) this year. In this week's game, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 81st percentile among wide receivers with 7.3 targets. Zay Flowers's 61.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 52.2. Zay Flowers ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 5.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.6 per game) this year. The projections expect Mark Andrews to total 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs. Mark Andrews's 84.3% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 74.4% rate. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the league.