Minnesota @ Green Bay props

A rushing game script is indicated by the Packers being a 5-point favorite this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) generally mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased run volume. With a feeble 69.5% Adjusted Catch% (2nd percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs rates among the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Right now, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the NFL (54.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Green Bay Packers. The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per snap. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. The projections expect Tucker Kraft to garner 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among tight ends. Tucker Kraft's 85.7% Adjusted Catch% this year marks an impressive progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 80.6% mark.

Right now, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the NFL (54.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Green Bay Packers. The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per snap. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. The projections expect Jayden Reed to notch 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Jayden Reed profiles as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week. In this week's game, Aaron Jones is projected by the predictive model to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets. Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 12.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. With an excellent 3.0 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Aaron Jones places among the leading pass-catching running backs in football.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (only 56.4 per game on average). Minnesota's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions in this game. The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. Johnny Mundt's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 72.6% to 63.7%.

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast Justin Jefferson to earn 9.7 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile among wideouts. Justin Jefferson's 72.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 97th percentile for wide receivers. Since the start of last season, the anemic Packers pass defense has yielded a massive 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 7th-worst rate in football.