Indianapolis @ Minnesota props

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.0% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.5 targets. T.J. Hockenson grades out as one of the best pass-catching TEs last year, averaging an outstanding 6.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 98th percentile. The Colts pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.7%) versus tight ends this year (87.7%).

Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 77.7% to 67.0%. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers project as the 5th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The projections expect the Colts as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 6th-fastest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Colts. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in the NFL. Josh Downs's 5.4 adjusted receptions per game this season shows a substantial gain in his receiving proficiency over last season's 4.0 figure.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.0% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The projections expect Justin Jefferson to total 10.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers. With a remarkable 5.9 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the league. This year, the anemic Colts pass defense has been torched for a whopping 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

Mo Alie-Cox checks in as one of the worst TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a measly 1.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 19th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers project as the 5th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Vikings are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script. The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.1 per game on average). The Colts pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.4%) to RBs this year (79.4%).