Tennessee @ Miami props

The Dolphins may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially reduced (and rushing stats propped up a bit) due to playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to expect some correction with improved weather in this week's game. With an exceptional 3.2 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonnu Smith rates as one of the best pass-game tight ends in football. Since the start of last season, the poor Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up a staggering 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the worst rate in the NFL. As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Tennessee's unit has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in the league.

The Dolphins may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially reduced (and rushing stats propped up a bit) due to playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to expect some correction with improved weather in this week's game. The projections expect Tyreek Hill to notch 7.8 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers. With an excellent 6.9 adjusted receptions per game (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Tyreek Hill ranks among the top wide receivers in the game in the NFL. The Titans pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.5%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (70.5%).

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 62.5% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week. Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 15.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Chigoziem Okonkwo rates as one of the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 75th percentile. Chigoziem Okonkwo's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 71.8% to 100.0%.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 62.5% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week. With an exceptional 91.4% Route Participation Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Calvin Ridley ranks among the wideouts with the most usage in football. With a remarkable 4.3 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Calvin Ridley places among the top wide receivers in the NFL in the league. The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.5%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (69.5%).

The Dolphins may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially reduced (and rushing stats propped up a bit) due to playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to expect some correction with improved weather in this week's game. The model projects Devon Achane to accumulate 5.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs. Devon Achane has been a more important option in his offense's passing offense this year (17.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.5%). Devon Achane checks in as one of the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 62.5% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week. With a top-tier 57.8% Route Participation% (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Tony Pollard rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in football. In this game, Tony Pollard is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.8 targets. Tony Pollard checks in as one of the best pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.