New England @ Buffalo props

The Bills are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. The projections expect the Bills as the 6th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the model to have only 125.1 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Bills this year (only 54.3 per game on average). Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the New England Patriots, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.6 per game) this year.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week. When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots grades out as the worst in the league this year. This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills defense has given up a puny 78.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.

The Bills are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. The projections expect the Bills as the 6th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the model to have only 125.1 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the New England Patriots, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.6 per game) this year. Dalton Kincaid's receiving skills have declined this season, accumulating a mere 3.4 adjusted catches compared to 4.6 last season.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week. When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots grades out as the worst in the league this year. This year, the fierce Bills defense has surrendered a mere 71.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Patriots are enormous underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 60.0% of their opportunities: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football. With an excellent 4.3 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) this year, Demario Douglas places as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in the NFL.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. James Cook's 14.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in football: 79th percentile for RBs. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 7th-best in football this year. The New England Patriots linebackers grade out as the 6th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.