NRG Stadium
While Evan Engram has garnered 23.6% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be much less involved in Jacksonville's passing offense in this game at 17.1%.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan. The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.
A passing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game. The model projects the Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of last season (a whopping 59.2 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Christian Kirk is forecasted by the model to finish in the 86th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.7 targets.
A passing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game. The model projects the Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of last season (a whopping 59.2 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Travis Etienne has run a route on 58.5% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Texans to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Texans are predicted by the projections to run 66.0 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week. The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans since the start of last season (a colossal 60.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan. Dalton Schultz's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 34.7. Dalton Schultz's 61.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a substantial diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season's 70.0% figure. Since the start of last season, the stout Jaguars defense has surrendered a mere 66.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the lowest rate in the league. The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.
A passing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game. The model projects the Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of last season (a whopping 59.2 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this week's contest, Brenton Strange is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 83rd percentile among tight ends with 4.7 targets.
