Indianapolis @ Denver props

A rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest. The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume. Courtland Sutton's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 68.4% to 62.9%. The Colts cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The model projects the Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Colts have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume. Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 77.7% to 61.6%. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Denver's safety corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 7th-best in the league.

A rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest. The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume. Javonte Williams's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 84.7% to 80.5%.

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -4.5-point underdogs. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year. In this week's contest, Josh Downs is anticipated by the model to slot into the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.9 targets. Josh Downs's receiving talent has gotten better this year, notching 5.3 adjusted catches compared to just 4.0 last year.