Buffalo @ Baltimore props

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 11th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are projected by the predictive model to run only 60.2 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 11th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are projected by the predictive model to run only 60.2 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week. Since the start of last season, the strong Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded a measly 77.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.

A rushing game script is implied by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this week's game. Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to have only 123.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

The model projects Isaiah Likely to earn 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among TEs. The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been atrocious since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

A passing game script is suggested by the Bills being a -3-point underdog this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season. Khalil Shakir's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 86.7% to 100.0%.

With an extraordinary 92.5% Route Participation Rate (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Zay Flowers ranks as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football. This week, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the model to finish in the 82nd percentile among wideouts with 7.0 targets. The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board. With an excellent 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Zay Flowers stands as one of the best WRs in the NFL in football. The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.1%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (68.1%).

With a high 75.5% Route Participation% (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Mark Andrews rates among the tight ends with the highest volume in football. In this week's game, Mark Andrews is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 78th percentile among tight ends with 4.0 targets. The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board. Mark Andrews ranks as one of the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 3.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 86th percentile. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been atrocious since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.