Minnesota @ Jacksonville props

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be rolling out backup quarterback Mac Jones in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jaguars to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.8 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Travis Etienne to notch 3.8 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.

A running game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 6.5-point favorite in this game. The projections expect the Vikings to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game. The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

The projections expect the Jaguars to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The 4th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (just 53.1 per game on average). The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Minnesota's LB corps has been great this year, grading out as the 9th-best in the league.

A running game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 6.5-point favorite in this game. The projections expect the Vikings to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game. The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. Our trusted projections expect T.J. Hockenson to be a less important option in his offense's passing attack in this game (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.1% in games he has played).

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (62.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Minnesota Vikings. The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (35.8 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to total 4.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs. Aaron Jones's 22.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 15.4. Aaron Jones is positioned as one of the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an impressive 3.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be rolling out backup quarterback Mac Jones in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jaguars to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.8 per game) this year. This week, Evan Engram is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 8.4 targets.