Kansas City @ Los Angeles props

The Chargers will be forced to use backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -3-point underdogs. The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. With a sizeable 53.0% Snap% (87th percentile) since the start of last season, J.K. Dobbins stands among the running backs with the biggest workloads in football. J.K. Dobbins ranks as one of the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, hauling in a remarkable 100.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 100th percentile.

The Chargers will be forced to use backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -3-point underdogs. The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.6% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football. In this game, Travis Kelce is forecasted by the model to place in the 98th percentile among tight ends with 7.0 targets. Travis Kelce places in the 99th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a massive 48.7 mark since the start of last season.

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been great since the start of last season, profiling as the 9th-best in the league.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 53.6% of their plays: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football. The Kansas City defensive tackles project as the 3rd-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their pass rush.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.6% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football. The predictive model expects Rashee Rice to accrue 10.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among WRs. With a fantastic 5.5 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Rashee Rice places as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in the league.