Chicago @ Arizona props

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cardinals to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. James Conner's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 86.0% to 80.7%. The Chicago Bears safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap. Our trusted projections expect D.J. Moore to garner 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile among WRs. The Bears O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board. The Cardinals pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.5%) versus WRs this year (72.5%). As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's unit has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league.

At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (35.9 per game) this year. The Arizona O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all air attack stats across the board.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume. Cole Kmet's 36.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 41.2. Cole Kmet's 3.9 adjusted catches per game this season represents a material decline in his receiving ability over last season's 4.9 rate. This year, the formidable Cardinals defense has yielded a feeble 72.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-best rate in the NFL.

At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (35.9 per game) this year. Trey McBride has been less involved as a potential target this year (88.8% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (62.7%). The projections expect Trey McBride to total 7.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends. Trey McBride's 6.0 adjusted catches per game this year marks an impressive improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 4.7 figure.

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap. With a remarkable 54.9% Route Participation Rate (93rd percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift has been among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in football. In this week's contest, D'Andre Swift is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 80th percentile among running backs with 3.4 targets. D'Andre Swift ranks as one of the leading running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 2.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile. This year, the weak Cardinals pass defense has allowed a massive 92.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 4th-highest rate in football.