Best NFL Picks Today

The Falcons rank 24th in DVOA defending WR2s, allowing an average of 54.6 yards per game to the position. This secondary is also running a high rate of man coverage (10th most) and Higgins currently rates as the No. 1 WR versus man at PFF. Projections for Higgins range from 74 to 88 yards on Sunday morning, with most models north of 80 yards. My number comes out to 81.5 receiving yards in Madrid.

His low Week 8 result is slimming his receiving yards prop for Sunday’s matchup despite facing a much soft pass defense. The Cowboys have allowed rival TEs to go for 37, 48, and 72 yards the last three contests and average more than 52 yards against from the position on the season. Warren’s projections are very bullish, with all consulted models coming in well above 40 yards with most north of 50. My number sits at 52 receiving yards for the Colts tight end.

The Rams could be without both starting cornerbacks and their starting safety in a game where Washington will likely have to pass more than it wants to. Stefon Diggs might not play 85% of the snaps, but he's on the field for passing downs and leads the team with a 23% target share, which jumps to 28% on routes run. As the No. 1 receiver, getting his TD at longer than 3x is value, as I have his fair price around 2.8x. Diggs has twice as many red-zone targets as the next-best WR and has caught a TD in each of the five games Jayden Daniels has started, with five total across four games.

Rashee Rice returned to action last week after missing two games and scored on a team-high eight targets. Now he gets to face a defense that just allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for three scores and gave up 38 points. Even at 2.23x, I'd still play Rice to 2.1x this week vs. a defense that has the fourth-worst TD rate per game to opposing wide receivers. In his four games this year, Rice has either scored a TD or gone for 80+ yards.

I price Jameson Williams closer to 45% to score a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins, making the 37% available at Kalshi an easy buy. Amon-Ra St. Brown's ability to command attention underneath should create opportunities for Williams to exploit one-on-one matchups on the boundary. With the Dolphins forced to dedicate additional defensive help to St. Brown, Williams has a chance to take advantage of those isolation looks and find the end zone. 

I've hit in back-to-back weeks with this backfield, which is never an easy thing to do, but it does look like Jonah Coleman is the preferred hand in this division-leading offense. The rookie had 15 touches last week with RJ Harvey (IR) out and logged six red-zone carries and one target in Week 8. That was one of the heaviest red-zone workloads of any player in football. The Panthers are a dream matchup, as they allow the most TDs to opposing running backs and rank in the bottom five in red-zone TD%. With the Broncos sitting around a touchdown favorite, the run game should be on display, and Coleman is a buy for me at even money or better this week.

This Nabers touchdown prop is in play up to 38%. He was the top target for McCarthy in Week 7, and Nabers finished with seven receptions on nine targets for 111 yards. The go-to receiver’s 33.3% red-zone target share is also the fourth-highest mark at the position, and the Eagles have already allowed 10 touchdown receptions to wide receivers this season. 

David Montgomery is not ready to return, and even if he were, this would still likely be Woody Marks' backfield in an indoor matchup against one of the best running back matchups on paper. The Texans offense is healthy and loaded coming out of the bye and gets to face a team that has failed to cover a single game this season. They're also one of just five teams allowing more than 1.00 running back TD per game. The last time we saw Marks, he played 89% of the snaps and handled 19 carries. He has very little competition for touches and should get the bulk of the red-zone work against a defense dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary. I'd play Marks to 53% this week.

This touchdown prop is in play up to 30%. Black scored in Week 7 while rushing for 5.3 yards per carry and an impressive 3.92 yards after contact per attempt, and the Raiders have surrendered a rushing score in five consecutive games for seven total. With star rusher Christian McCaffrey returning from a hamstring injury, Black is going to be involved again this week. 

Christian Watson is dealing with a rib injury and might not be 100% heading into Sunday, while Matthew Golden has four TDs over his last six games and has seen 38 targets over his last three games, with double-digit looks in each. I got this at 2.94x, compared to prices of 2.4x and 2.3x over the last two weeks. The New England pass defense isn't particularly stout and is one of seven defenses allowing more than one receiving TD per game to opposing wide receivers. There are also four New England defensive starters carrying questionable tags midweek. I like this one down to 2.5x.

Tyler Allgeier was my guy last week, and he delivered. Now he has an even bigger opportunity with the loss of Jeremiah Love and Bam Knight dealing with a concussion. It's not an easy matchup against the Seahawks, but this Arizona offense has some Minshew Magic, and Allgeier should have all the red-zone opportunities he can handle. Seattle has the league's worst red-zone TD% at a massive 83%. The Bears scored on all four red-zone possessions on Monday. A lead back with that kind of red-zone workload should be priced at 2.5x or shorter, making this 2.78x price a value play.

Caleb Williams isn't going to see the football much on Sunday night. Tampa Bay's run-centric attack is chewing up clock with a methodical pace and limiting opposing passers. And when he does get on the field, Williams faces a Tampa Bay defense atop the pass defense metrics and limiting foes to shorter gains. Projections sit south of 250 yards from Williams, with a basement of 202 yards on SNF.

The potential loss of Kyler Murray doesn't significantly change my outlook on this play, but any quality receiver against this Buffalo defense at 3.5x or better is worth a look. I got Jordan Addison at 4.0x after he saw eight targets and accounted for 52% of the air yards in Week 8. There's a good chance Minnesota will have to push the ball downfield as a 3.5-point underdog in an indoor game, which sets up nicely for a 4.0x TD price. No team allows more receiving TDs to opposing wide receivers than the Bills at 1.35 per game. They're also a bottom-seven unit in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate.