New England @ Chicago props

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.1% of their chances: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. Cole Kmet's 13.9% Target Share this season illustrates a noteworthy decline in his pass attack workload over last season's 20.4% mark. Cole Kmet's pass-catching performance declined this year, compiling a mere 3.9 adjusted catches compared to 4.9 last year.

The projections expect the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.16 seconds per snap. The predictive model expects D.J. Moore to accumulate 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year. This year, the anemic Patriots pass defense has yielded a colossal 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 6th-highest rate in football. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The projections expect the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.16 seconds per snap. D'Andre Swift has run a route on 53.6% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs. In this contest, D'Andre Swift is expected by the projections to secure a spot in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.5 targets. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year. D'Andre Swift profiles as one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an impressive 3.1 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. At the present time, the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots. In this week's game, Demario Douglas is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.1 targets. With an excellent 4.4 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) this year, Demario Douglas ranks among the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL. Demario Douglas's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 64.1% to 76.9%.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. At the present time, the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots. In this week's contest, Hunter Henry is projected by the projection model to place in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.0 targets. Hunter Henry's 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 33.2. Hunter Henry's 4.4 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a substantial progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 3.3 figure.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. At the present time, the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots. In this week's game, Rhamondre Stevenson is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 81st percentile among RBs with 3.5 targets. With a sizeable 11.8% Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson stands as one of the pass-game running backs with the most usage in football. With a remarkable 2.9 adjusted receptions per game (88th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson stands as one of the top pass-game RBs in the NFL.