Houston @ Kansas City props

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Houston Texans ranks as the 8th-worst in football this year. Nico Collins's 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a material regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 71.9% figure. When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 61.4 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down. Isiah Pacheco has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 8.7% this year, which ranks in the 75th percentile among running backs.

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3.5 points. Travis Kelce's 74.4% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a significant reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 80.1% figure. The Texans pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (64.6%) versus TEs this year (64.6%). As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Houston's group of DEs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Houston Texans ranks as the 8th-worst in football this year. Joe Mixon's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 83.5% to 73.0%. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.8%) to running backs this year (79.8%). When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script. Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football (63.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Texans. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the porous Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-largest rate in football.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 61.4 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down. DeAndre Hopkins's 70.8% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a material boost in his receiving skills over last season's 56.6% rate.