Denver @ New York props

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. With a 65.6% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-most pass-focused team in football has been the Denver Broncos. Right now, the 10th-fastest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Denver Broncos. The model projects Courtland Sutton to accrue 7.8 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers. Courtland Sutton's 66.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for WRs.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.5 per game) since the start of last season. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the worst possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching a mere 47.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 11th percentile. The Jets pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.2%) to TEs since the start of last season (69.2%). As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New York's collection of LBs has been great since the start of last season, grading out as the best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Jets to be the 4th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate. The New York Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing more favorable weather in this game. With an exceptional 97.9% Route% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson rates as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL. With an impressive 5.5 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson rates among the best WRs in the game in the NFL. The Denver Broncos pass defense has been gouged for the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.9%).

A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 6-point favorite in this week's game. The projections expect the Jets to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season. The Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. With a 65.6% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-most pass-focused team in football has been the Denver Broncos. Right now, the 10th-fastest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Denver Broncos. Javonte Williams has run more routes this season (46.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (29.4%). With a fantastic 3.0 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Javonte Williams has been as one of the top pass-catching RBs in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Jets to be the 4th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate. The New York Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing more favorable weather in this game. Tyler Conklin ranks in the 85th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with a staggering 32.9 mark since the start of last season. Tyler Conklin ranks as one of the top pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile. The Broncos pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (79.6%).