Dallas @ Pittsburgh props

Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Steelers, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 28.8 per game) this year. CeeDee Lamb's 22.0% Target% this season represents a noteworthy reduction in his passing game usage over last season's 30.2% figure. CeeDee Lamb's play as a receiver has worsened this season, averaging a measly 5.1 adjusted catches vs 7.9 last season. CeeDee Lamb's 66.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a significant drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 74.7% mark. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.8%) versus WRs since the start of last season (61.8%).

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 46.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 131.5 offensive plays called: the most on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to earn 7.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs. Jake Ferguson's 22.3% Target Rate this season conveys a noteable growth in his pass attack workload over last season's 16.4% mark. Jake Ferguson profiles as one of the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 4.3 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.

Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Steelers, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 28.8 per game) this year. Rico Dowdle's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 81.7% to 75.8%. The Steelers safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 46.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Since the start of last season, the strong Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded a paltry 72.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 10th-smallest rate in football.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Steelers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game. In this week's game, Najee Harris is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 89th percentile among RBs with 4.0 targets. Najee Harris has been a much bigger part of his team's passing game this season (14.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (6.5%). As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.