Los Angeles @ New England props

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. At a mere 28.08 seconds per play, the Rams offense ranks as the 9th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year. Kyren Williams has run a route on 66.0% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. In this game, Kyren Williams is anticipated by the model to rank in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.6 targets. Kyren Williams grades out as one of the leading running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 2.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

With a 4-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach. When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Rams ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year. The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.6%) versus tight ends this year (73.6%).

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach. Cooper Kupp's 112.8% Route Participation% this year marks a material gain in his pass game utilization over last year's 98.4% mark. When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Rams ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year.

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4-point underdog in this week's game. This week, Rhamondre Stevenson is expected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 81st percentile among running backs with 3.4 targets. With a top-tier 11.2% Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in football. Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an impressive 2.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 80th percentile. Rhamondre Stevenson's 87.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a substantial improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 80.9% rate.

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4-point underdog in this week's game. In this contest, Hunter Henry is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 91st percentile among tight ends with 5.9 targets. Hunter Henry's 43.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 33.2. Hunter Henry has been one of the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 4.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile. Hunter Henry's 78.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a remarkable growth in his pass-catching skills over last year's 68.4% rate.

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4-point underdog in this week's game. Demario Douglas rates as one of the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a stellar 4.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile. Demario Douglas's 77.4% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching skills over last season's 64.1% figure. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. At a mere 28.08 seconds per play, the Rams offense ranks as the 9th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year. Our trusted projections expect Puka Nacua to garner 9.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs. The projections expect Puka Nacua to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense in this contest (26.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played). The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.5%) versus WRs this year (69.5%).