Pittsburgh @ Washington props

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Commanders, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 28.7 per game) this year. The Steelers O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

The model projects the Steelers to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average). Pat Freiermuth has run a route on 77.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs. Pat Freiermuth is positioned as one of the best TE receiving threats this year, averaging an exceptional 3.3 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 79th percentile. Pat Freiermuth's 90.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a noteable gain in his pass-catching talent over last season's 73.2% figure.

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. The projections expect Zach Ertz to earn 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Zach Ertz has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 18.9% this year, which ranks him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 4th-best in football this year. Zach Ertz comes in as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 3.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.

The model projects the Steelers to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average). Najee Harris's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 10.0.