Cleveland @ New Orleans props

The Browns O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board. The New Orleans Saints pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (81.7%) vs. RBs this year (81.7%).

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.9 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. This week, Alvin Kamara is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 100th percentile among RBs with 9.0 targets. Alvin Kamara's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 28.9. With a fantastic 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (100th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara rates among the leading pass-game RBs in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Saints to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.6% pass rate. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board. With a meager 0.9 adjusted catches per game (7th percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling places among the worst wide receivers in the game in the league. With a poor 51.0% Adjusted Catch% (20th percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling stands among the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to wideouts.

Our trusted projections expect the Browns to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see 136.9 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a massive 62.1 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 6th-most in the league. David Njoku profiles as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 5.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Our trusted projections expect the Browns to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see 136.9 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a massive 62.1 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 6th-most in the league. Cedric Tillman's pass-catching performance gotten better this season, accumulating 3.5 adjusted catches vs a measly 2.0 last season.