Miami @ Los Angeles props

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 57.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week. Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Rams, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 31.0 per game) this year. Tyreek Hill's 64.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 77.5. Tyreek Hill's receiving skills have worsened this season, notching just 3.9 adjusted receptions vs 7.4 last season.

The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a staggering 61.6 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off. Our trusted projections expect Jonnu Smith to total 6.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among tight ends. Jonnu Smith's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.8. Jonnu Smith has been one of the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an outstanding 3.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 128.1 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week. Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, totaling the fewest attempts in football (just 30.8 per game) this year. Kyren Williams's 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 17.5. The Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 128.1 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week. Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, totaling the fewest attempts in football (just 30.8 per game) this year. The Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower rush volume. Colby Parkinson's 71.4% Route% this season marks a noteable gain in his pass attack volume over last season's 33.3% mark. Colby Parkinson's 3.2 adjusted receptions per game this year marks an impressive improvement in his receiving ability over last year's 1.8 figure. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Miami's collection of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football.

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 57.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week. Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Rams, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 31.0 per game) this year.