Washington @ Philadelphia props

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume. Our trusted projections expect Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.5 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile among TEs. With an excellent 4.4 adjusted catches per game (89th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert stands among the best pass-game tight ends in the NFL. Dallas Goedert's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 73.8% to 84.4%.

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.13 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league. Brian Robinson's pass-catching performance worsened this year, averaging a measly 1.3 adjusted receptions compared to 2.4 last year. Brian Robinson's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 90.4% to 81.4%. The Eagles pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.4%) to running backs this year (79.4%).

The Commanders are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may drop-off. In this week's game, Zach Ertz is expected by the predictive model to land in the 88th percentile among TEs with 5.7 targets. With an impressive 19.2% Target% (93rd percentile) this year, Zach Ertz places as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL. With a stellar 3.7 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz stands as one of the best pass-game tight ends in football.

The Eagles are a 4-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script. The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Eagles offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.04 seconds per play. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year. A.J. Brown's pass-catching performance tailed off this season, compiling just 4.6 adjusted catches vs 6.2 last season.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume. Saquon Barkley's 88.2% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a meaningful gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 72.6% figure.

The Commanders are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may drop-off. In this week's contest, Terry McLaurin is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 86th percentile among wideouts with 7.8 targets. Terry McLaurin's 68.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 57.1. With an excellent 4.7 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin places as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in the league.