Arizona @ Carolina props

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 128.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 7th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (just 55.6 per game on average). Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 32.6 per game) this year.

The Panthers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Chuba Hubbard has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (60.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (42.6%). The projections expect Chuba Hubbard to earn 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. The Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (91.9%) versus RBs this year (91.9%).

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 128.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 7th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (just 55.6 per game on average). Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 32.6 per game) this year.

At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (58.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Carolina Panthers. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Panthers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 63.8 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week. The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Panthers this year (just 54.4 per game on average). Adam Thielen has been a much smaller part of his team's air attack this year (20.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (26.7%). Adam Thielen's play as a receiver has diminished this year, totaling just 4.8 adjusted receptions vs 6.1 last year.

The Panthers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.1%) vs. tight ends this year (78.1%). The Cardinals linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been torched for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.6%). When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in football.